What Is Variance in Table Games?
Variance is the swing between winning and losing streaks — even when the long-run math of a bet is well known. At a dice table, short sessions often feel nothing like the “average” result on a calculator.
House edge vs. what you feel tonight
Pass Line and Don’t Pass are among the lower house-edge flat bets on a craps layout, but low edge does not mean smooth results. Over a few dozen rolls you can still see multi-unit drawdowns, hot streaks, or a quick bust if the unit is large relative to the bankroll.
That gap — expected value over millions of trials vs. what happens in 20–50 rolls — is variance. Understanding it is the point of this site.
Why roll-by-roll matters
A single “you bust 18% of the time” number hides the path. Table Survivor shows each roll so cold streaks, recoveries, and near-misses are visible. That makes risk of ruin more intuitive than a static odds table alone.
Bankroll units (simple rule of thumb)
- Few units (e.g. $100 bankroll at $25 bets) → high chance the session ends early.
- More units (e.g. $500 at $10) → more room to absorb normal downswings.
- Neither setup “beats” the game; they only change how often you survive a fixed session length in a simulation.
Try it yourself
Pick a pre-built scenario or configure your own. Advance one roll at a time and watch the bankroll path.
FAQ
Is variance the same as the house edge?
No. House edge is the long-run average. Variance is how wide the short-run swings can be around that average.
Can simulation remove luck?
No. A seed only makes a path replayable for study. Live tables remain independent random processes.
Educational content only. 18+. Not gambling advice. No real-money wagering on this site.